Bear Market Over? Why Bitcoin Could Soar To $45K As Strong Holders Grow
Bitcoin has retaken the highs of its current range. The first cryptocurrency by market cap trades at $41,300, at the time of writing, with a 6% and 23.8% profit in the daily chart.
BTC moving sideways after retaking $40,000 in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview
The general sentiment in the market has flipped bullish, the fear and greed index signals greed for the first time in months. Other indicators, as many experts have pointed out, suggest a definite shift in the market. The bulls could see more green days in the coming weeks.
Data from Glassnode, provided by the CIO of Moskovski Capital Lex Moskovski, recorded an increase in the amount of Bitcoin held by “strongest holders”. According to the Illiquid Supply metric, these holders have risen to an all-time high and suggest “bullish” price action.
Source: Glassnode via Lex Moskovski
Charles Edwards, a founder at Capriole Investments, revealed an increase in long-term Bitcoin holders. According to the HOLD Waves metric, these types of investors have been growing their supply since the May 2021 crash. Edwards added:
This type of sharp rise never occurred in the early stages of prior bear markets, suggesting that there is a chance the Bitcoin bull-cycle is still intact.
Source: Glassnode via Charles Edwards
Additional data provided by Edwards indicates that exchanges platforms had their “first positive outflows” since last week when Bitcoin made a run from its yearly open at around $29,000 to its current levels. This metric suggests that the demand in the crypto market could be returning and could support further appreciation.
Days prior to the current price action, Bitcoin dropped from about $35,000 to its yearly open, as mentioned. Edwards called this price action a “failed breakout”, as sellers were exhausted at those lows and were unable to push the price further down. He added:
The ensuing squeeze to the upside was supported by a heavily short market, with over-exposure to stable-coin contracts. This resulted in a short squeeze over the last week which culminated on the candle highlighted (…)
Source: Charles Edwards – Capriole Investments
Bitcoin Fundamentals Turn Positive, Bulls Back In Control?
Edwards reviewed other indicators, such as the Hash Ribbons metric and believes it looks “promising”. The metric saw an important decline after China banned Bitcoin mining from the country. Miners had to migrate to friendlier destinations.
The Bitcoin hash rate and its Energy Value has been rising. Edwards found that both of this metric grew around 8%, indicating that the miners’ migration has ended. Another bullish factor, since these entities can stop selling BTC; the market could see selling pressure diminish. However, investors must remain cautious:
Hash rate is showing a positive and strong trend, not dissimilar to December 2018, suggesting the bottom could be in. However, Hash Rate can give various false positives during capitulation. This is why we remain cautious until the Hash Ribbon buy signal is confirmed.
In the coming days, Bitcoin could see more accumulation around its current levels with a “higher chance” of another leg up to the mid-range, $45,000. If BTC’s price retraces, the invalidation zone stands at $39,000.
The macro-economic outlook presents a potential tailwind and risk for Bitcoin. Edwards claims that the U.S. Federal Reserve and its inflationary monetary policy could continue to boost BTC if the financial institution keeps printing money.
There is a potential risk in the traditional market. If the stock market crashes, Bitcoin could follow. The cryptocurrency has displayed a high level of correlation with the S&P 500. In consequence, it could hurt its chances to reclaim previous highs in case of a dropped. Edwards concluded:
For now, fundamentals and technicals are skewed towards the upside, and our base case is we will move towards the mid- to high-$40Ks over the coming weeks. In the near-term this thesis would be validated if we breakdown below $39K. Finally, Bitcoin cycle history tells us to be wary of significant volatility and downside risk until conditions are further improved.